Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-09 12:32Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradiction in the market this week has shifted from the "expectation of collective price hikes by shipping companies" to the "expectation gap between the conservative pricing of leading shipping companies and the optimistic market sentiment." The conservative pricing strategy of Maersk has weakened the bullish sentiment in the market, and the spot freight rate shows high differentiation, with limited upward momentum [2]. - The short - term market will be dominated by the game between "weak reality" and "stable expectation" due to the weak cargo volume and the strategic differentiation among shipping companies [2]. - The near - term trading logic focuses on the actual implementation of the shipping companies' price - holding actions from November to December, while the long - term trading logic is affected by factors such as 2025's shipping capacity delivery pressure, seasonal factors, and potential resumption of navigation [5][8]. - The market is in a high - level shock and short - term weak state. The main contract EC2512 has encountered significant resistance above 2000 points, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 1800 - 2050 points with a slightly downward center of gravity [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - Market Core Contradiction: The core contradiction has shifted, and Maersk's conservative pricing has led to a weakening of bullish sentiment and significant long - position reduction in the main contract 2512. Spot freight rates are highly differentiated, and it is difficult to form a trend - like upward momentum [2]. - Near - term Trading Logic: It centers around the actual implementation of the shipping companies' price - holding actions from November to December. The actual effect of the first round of price - holding in December will be the key to the valuation of the 2512 contract. The decrease in the weekly average shipping capacity from East China to European base ports in December may support the price hikes [5]. - Long - term Trading Expectation: It is affected by factors such as 2025's shipping capacity delivery pressure, seasonal factors, and potential resumption of navigation. High shipping capacity and other factors limit the upward space of freight rates, and the long - term contracts face multiple suppressing forces [8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market is in a high - level shock and short - term weak state. The main contract EC2512 is expected to oscillate in the range of 1800 - 2050 points with a slightly downward center of gravity [10]. - Arbitrage Strategy: The spread between near - and far - term contracts reflects the market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunities brought by spread fluctuations, but operations need to be cautious due to the uncertainty of the Red Sea resumption of navigation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Risk Management Strategies: For companies with excessive shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits; for those worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance [13]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Comprehensive Freight Rate Index: The FBX comprehensive route index increased by 16.22% week - on - week, while the CICFI, SCFI, NCFI, and SCFIS European route index decreased, and the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 14.43%. The SCFI European, US - West, and US - East route freight rates all decreased [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Shipping companies are determined to hold prices and continue to announce price hikes until December; there are positive signs in shipping capacity regulation; the year - end seasonal peak season provides marginal support for freight rates [29]. - Negative Information: There are signs of easing in the geopolitical situation, increasing the expectation of Red Sea route resumption; the spot index has turned from rising to falling; macro and trade data are weak [30]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: The main contract EC2512 had a volatile "roller - coaster" trend this week. It reached a new high this year but then declined due to the increased expectation of Red Sea resumption and the decline of the spot index. The trading volume and open interest increased, indicating intensified divergence between bulls and bears [31]. - Basis Structure: The basis (spot - futures) contango structure is still deep. The current high premium of futures means that the spot needs to rise more strongly to support the futures price, otherwise, the futures price may return to the spot price [36]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The spread between near - and far - term contracts maintains a B structure but fluctuates. The far - term contracts are more sensitive to negative factors, reflecting the market's concern about the medium - and long - term fundamentals [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared to the same period last year. Most shipping companies are still profitable [43]. - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect the freight rate trend from the supply and cost sides [43].