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闪迪预计NAND供不应求持续至26年底,关注算力和存力新机遇
Xinda Securities·2025-11-09 12:43

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - NAND supply shortage is expected to persist until the end of 2026, with strong price momentum in storage [2] - The semiconductor sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 46.58%, while other electronic sectors have varied in performance [9] - Flash storage demand is projected to exceed supply, particularly in the data center market, driven by AI demand [2] - CSP capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $600 billion in 2026, indicating a new structural growth cycle in computing power [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown mixed performance, with the semiconductor index up 46.58% year-to-date, while other segments like components and consumer electronics have also seen significant gains [9] - Notable stock movements include declines in major North American tech stocks, with Apple down 0.70% and Tesla down 5.92% this week [10] NAND Flash Market - SanDisk reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $2.308 billion, a 21% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 23% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 29.9% [2] - NAND bit shipments increased by 15%, and average selling prices (ASP) grew in the single-digit percentage range [2] - The current market shows a tight supply for NAND Flash, with spot prices on the rise due to strong demand from factories [2] Capital Expenditure Trends - CSP capital expenditures are projected to grow by 40% in 2026, reflecting a robust investment cycle in AI infrastructure [2] - This growth is expected to stimulate demand for AI servers and related components, driving expansion across the supply chain [2] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks to watch include industrial and domestic AI companies, as well as storage and SoC manufacturers [3]