贵金属周度观察：关注美国政府重新开门进程-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, it has strategic allocation advantages due to global central bank gold - buying trends. In the short - term, it will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation before the December Fed meeting and oscillate at the key level of $4000. Trading positions should wait, while long - term allocation can be made on dips after stabilization [4]. - Silver is in a short - term volatile consolidation. Its price trend is highly correlated with gold, and the long - term price center will follow gold's upward movement. Its price elasticity is higher than gold [5]. - The report suggests paying attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and subsequent macro data, as well as whether the Fed will start bond - buying operations for reserve management [5]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 01 Macro Impact Factors - Fed Interest - Rate Cut: Powell's hawkish stance made the market re - price the future easing path. Before the December Fed meeting, the market will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation due to data uncertainty caused by the government shutdown and internal Fed differences [7]. - US Supreme Court's Tariff Legality Ruling: The case's final decision is pending. In the long - term, the US tariff system will shift to "precision strikes", and the economic drag from tariffs will continue [7]. - Trade Conflict: In the short - term, the risk of industrial chain "decoupling" in Sino - US trade has decreased, but structural contradictions remain, and future disputes will focus on technology and security [7]. - Geopolitical Conflict: Conflicts in areas like Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela are still ongoing, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - US Government Shutdown: It has entered the 40th day, causing impacts on welfare payments, healthcare, and air traffic. The probability of a bipartisan compromise has increased, and attention should be paid to whether an agreement can be reached on November 15 for the government to reopen [8]. - Physical Gold ETF: It has seen continuous net inflows for five months, with $82 billion in October. The trading volume has reached a record $170 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [8]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: Global central banks' net gold purchases in Q3 2025 were 220 tons, with a 28% quarterly increase and a 10% year - on - year increase. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months [8]. 02 ETF持仓跟踪 - Gold and Silver ETF Holdings: Specific data on the holdings and changes of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF from November 3 - 7, 2025 are provided [30]. - October Global Physical Gold ETF Inflows: It had net inflows for five consecutive months, with $82 billion in October. North America and Asia led the inflows, while Europe had outflows. The trading volume reached a record high [35]. 03 Exchange Inventory - There is information about gold and silver exchange inventory, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [40][42]. 04 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - There is information about domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [46][49]. 05 Precious Metals Ratio - There is information about precious metals ratio, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [52][55].