能源化工：C3产业链周度报告-20251109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - LPG: Demand support is limited, and the futures price is over - valued. The market price of civil LPG has increased, while the import cost has decreased. There is a short - term downward drive for the futures price [3]. - Propylene: Supply and demand have narrowed, and there is an expectation of a halt in price decline in the short term. The market price has been declining due to a loose supply - demand pattern, but there are signs of improvement in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - Price & Spread - The domestic spot price of civil LPG has increased, with an average increase of 30 - 95 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased by about 250 yuan/ton. The FEI discount has been adjusted slightly, and the freight has risen and then fallen [8][20]. - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The actual arrival volume of international ships this week is lower than expected, but it is expected to reach about 60 tons next week [3][59]. - Demand & Inventory - The PDH and MTBE operating rates have increased slightly. The refinery inventory of civil LPG is at a neutral level year - on - year, with destocking mainly in the East and South China. The port inventory of imported LPG is at a relatively high level year - on - year, also with destocking [3][84][94]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - The upstream cost has weakened, and the market price of propylene has declined. The international and domestic prices of propylene have both decreased, with the domestic price reaching a new low [105][109][117]. - Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some production processes such as PDH have increased slightly, while the operating rates of some downstream products such as PP powder have decreased. The overall supply and demand of propylene have narrowed [127][130][134].