资产配置年终观点：迷雾中航行：在全球分化与数据真空下的资产抉择-20251109

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the market will continue to be overshadowed by the "data vacuum" and "policy divergence" in the US. The relatively certain macro trends before the end of the year are: 1) The Federal Reserve has shifted to a loose monetary policy, benefiting US Treasuries and gold; 2) The oil market is facing oversupply, negatively impacting oil prices; 3) China's policy remains stable, favoring the bond market and providing thematic opportunities for A-shares; 4) Europe and Japan lack endogenous growth momentum, with Japan's "high market trading" peaking and Europe's economy stagnating [3][5]. Stock Market - Increasing Divergence, Seeking Structural Oases - A-shares are currently in a phase of negotiation between policy expectations and economic realities, with market performance highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The focus is shifting from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with expectations for a shift towards greater fiscal stimulus aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [6]. - The US stock market's strong performance is primarily driven by a few tech stocks, contrasting with the deteriorating data vacuum and macroeconomic realities, facing significant correction pressure before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish actions have increased policy uncertainty, negatively affecting risk asset valuations [8][14]. - The Japanese stock market, driven by new Prime Minister's fiscal policies, has shown signs of fatigue, with recent profit-taking leading to a decline. The market is returning to fundamentals, and any global risk aversion, especially in the AI sector, could lead to significant volatility [16]. - European stock markets are lacking upward catalysts due to economic stagnation and a neutral central bank stance, with core economies like Germany and France facing growth challenges [21]. Bond Market - Turning Interest Rate Cycle, Seeking Balance of Safety and Yield - The US Treasury market is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the yield curve showing a "non-typical" steepening, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish shift signals a significant opportunity for long-term US Treasuries [31][32]. - In the domestic bond market, the People's Bank of China is maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, providing stable support for the bond market. The low correlation of Chinese bonds with global indices makes them a valuable safe haven amid geopolitical risks [37]. Commodity Market - The Game of Hedging and Oversupply - Gold prices are expected to recover after a healthy correction following a record high, with the long-term bullish logic remaining intact due to declining real interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases [41][43]. - The oil market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak. The increase in production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to a significant oversupply, overshadowing geopolitical risks [47][49]. Overall Asset Allocation Summary - The report suggests prioritizing assets that benefit from the clearest macro trends, such as US Treasuries and gold, while avoiding assets affected by uncertainties like the US data vacuum and AI bubble. The recommended allocation order is: 1) Safe assets benefiting from Fed easing (US Treasuries, gold); 2) Structurally independent opportunities (domestic bonds, Indian stocks); 3) Markets awaiting catalysts (Vietnam); 4) Risk assets facing stagnation or bubble peaks (US, Japanese, European stocks); 5) Cyclical commodities under supply pressure (oil) [52][53].