聚酯数据周报-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [10]. - For PX, it is in a strong - oscillating market with cost support, and the strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [3]. - PTA is also in a strong - oscillating market, with positive demand feedback and cost support, and the strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG [4]. - MEG has a large supply pressure and the strategy is to do reverse spreads, showing a short - term oscillating and weak trend [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation - Zhengshangyuan PX futures forward curve has risen overall, and the monthly spread has rebounded to near flat water. The overseas PX maintains a B structure, and the PXN has strengthened significantly. The overseas aromatics valuation is supported by the strong overseas oil product cracking spreads [12][18][20]. - The PXN has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. The PX - MX spread has rebounded, but the short - process device start - up rate has declined [3][33]. Supply and Demand - The domestic PX production start - up rate reached a record high of 89.8% (+2.8%), and the Asian overall load start - up rate rebounded to 80.2% (+2.1%). The PX apparent consumption in October was 4.09 million tons, and the loss in October was 368,000 tons [39][40][41]. - In September, the PX import volume was 870,000 tons, with increments from Japan, Brunei, and Chinese Taipei. In October, it was expected to be 890,000 tons. Japan's PX exports increased and inventory decreased in September [46][56]. Inventory - In October, the Longzhong PX monthly inventory increased by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [61]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is consolidating at a low level, and the basis has continued to decline. The PTA processing fee has reached a new low, but the spot processing fee has rebounded [67][77]. Supply and Demand - The PTA start - up rate decreased to 76.4% (-1.6%). The PTA production from January to October 2025 accumulated to 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In September, the PTA export volume was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase [80][81][83]. Inventory - The PTA inventory is at a low level and is being transferred to the delivery warehouse [99]. MEG Valuation - The supply pressure suppresses the unilateral price trend of MEG, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened synchronously. The relative valuation of MEG to styrene has reached a year - on - year high, and the profits of various production processes are in a loss state [113][117][120]. Supply and Demand - The overall MEG start - up rate this week was 72.44% (-3.76%), and the start - up rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 71.94% (-11.5%). Multiple sets of devices have reduced their loads, but considering the upcoming restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device, the MEG start - up load will increase marginally in the future. The import arrival situation has been concentrated recently [123]. - Many overseas MEG devices are under maintenance or shut - down. The arbitrage window has closed, and the import profit has declined. The port inventory is expected to increase significantly from November to December [126][130][136]. Polyester Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (-0.2%). The downstream demand has stronger - than - expected resilience, and the polyester profit is good with controllable inventory. The polyester load will be maintained at 91% in November, 90% in December, and is expected to be 88% in January [140][142]. Production and Export - In 2025, the polyester production increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 5 - 6%. From January to September, the total polyester export was 10.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [145][146]. Inventory - The overall polyester inventory is moderately low, and the start - up resilience of filament has increased [147].