工业硅-多晶硅周报：工业硅：西南逐步减产，但上行驱动仍不足多晶硅：供需双弱，维持弱势震荡格局-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, while the futures price oscillated downward. The downstream demand decreased slightly, and the procurement sentiment was poor. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but there were also some bullish factors such as cost increases and production cuts in the southwest [6]. - The recommended strategy is to maintain a short position when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon was largely stable with minor fluctuations, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Industrial Silicon - Market Situation: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The southwest region gradually reduced production, and the downstream demand was weak [6]. - Logic Analysis: - Bearish Logic: High supply in October, high inventory, and limited demand growth in the fourth quarter [6]. - Bullish Logic: Cost increase, production cuts in Xinjiang and the southwest, and expectations of the dry season in the southwest [6]. - Recommended Strategy: Short positions can be established when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - Market Situation: The spot price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The market was in a state of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" [12]. - Logic Analysis: - Bearish Logic: High inventory, loose supply, weak downstream transactions, and poor fundamentals [12]. - Bullish Logic: Rising component tender prices, policy support, and industrial linkage effects [13]. - Recommended Strategy: Hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Data Review Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main contract Si2601 was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from last week. The trading volume increased by 29.79%, and the open interest increased by 17.38% [27]. - Spot: The prices of Tongyang 5530 and Tongyang 4210 in the East China market remained unchanged from last week [27]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Si2601 (East China 553) decreased by 52.17%, and the basis of Si2601 (East China 421) decreased by 25% [27]. Supply and Demand Data - Supply: The overall industrial silicon production decreased by 7.85% this week, and the opening rate decreased to 34.30%. The southwest region saw a significant decline in production, while the northwest region also had a slight decrease [28][58]. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was weak. The production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%, and the production of organic silicon increased by 5.22% [28]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased to 554,800 tons, up 4.8% from last week, while the futures inventory decreased by 505 tons [28][80]. Cost and Profit Data - Cost: The production cost increased mainly due to the rising price of petroleum coke and electricity in the southwest region [78]. - Profit: The profit decreased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [78]. 3.3 Polysilicon Data Review Price Data - Spot: The price of P - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 44,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.54% to 51,000 yuan/ton [119]. - Futures: The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform [12]. Supply and Demand Data - Supply: In November, the polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with a north - south difference in production changes. The overall supply is still at a high level, and the inventory continued to rise [126]. - Demand: The downstream demand was weak. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased, and the procurement sentiment was poor [119][126]. Cost and Profit Data - Cost: The average production cost decreased to 41,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [132]. - Profit: The gross profit and gross margin increased slightly, but the overall profit level was still low [132].