国联期货能化估值策略周报：强弱分化延续，不可过分看空-20251109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is cautiously bullish, with Brent crude expected to be in the range of 63 - 69 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strength of energy - chemical products is polyester > pure benzene - styrene = methanol - polyolefins. The strategy of "long PX and PTA, short methanol - polyolefins" can still be held cautiously, but beware of the impact of valuation improvement and year - end settlement liquidation, and do not be overly bearish [4] - For crude oil, EIA inventory shows that the apparent demand for US oil has rebounded, there is a small inventory build - up, refineries have unexpectedly reduced their operating rates, and the apparent demand for gasoline has declined with continued inventory drawdown. Seasonal demand decline is阶段性 completed. The current crack spreads for gasoline and diesel are good, and the market will then shift its focus to heating oil demand. The reduction of the Saudi - Asia premium has weakened market sentiment. Geopolitical factors remain the marginal driver [4] - In the polyester industry, PX operating rate has increased, while TA and EG operating rates have decreased. The operating rates of polyester and its downstream industries have increased steadily and continuously exceeded expectations, and the industrial chain inventory has rebounded. Maintenance factors may continue to support TA processing fees, and factors such as a more relaxed external environment and a late Chinese New Year may support the downstream demand of polyester. The upward elasticity of the industrial chain is maintained [4] - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, the downstream demand for pure benzene has increased steadily, with obvious improvement in nylon. The supply side has moderate support such as the conversion of disproportionation profit to loss, low BZN valuation, and better gasoline reforming profit than aromatics. The visible inventory has increased. The downstream PS of styrene has continued to improve, but EPS in the north has entered the off - season. The downstream export orders have increased, but it may still be weaker than pure benzene [4] - In the methanol - polyolefins industry, the decline in methanol has led to a rebound in MTO profit. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance plan will be implemented. The expectation of non - Iranian supply reduction continues, Iranian shipments may remain at a high level, and East China ports may continue to receive Iranian supplies. The impact of domestic gas restrictions remains to be observed. This chain may still perform weakly, but the price decline has improved the valuation. Be wary of the impact of hedge position liquidation [4] - The US liquidity environment is under test again. The US Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in Treasury bonds of various maturities next week, and about $40 billion in investment - grade corporate bonds are expected to be issued. November 11 is a holiday for US Veterans Day, and the bond market will be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Energy - Chemical Weekly Market Performance - The report mentions "Energy - chemical futures weekly performance", but no specific performance data is provided in the given content [10][12] 02 Crude Oil Data Tracking - Crude oil weekly inventory: Not detailed in the given text [18] - Refined oil weekly inventory: Not detailed in the given text [21] - Refinery capacity utilization: Not detailed in the given text [24][27] - Oil product crack spreads: Not detailed in the given text [30] - Net long positions (affected by government shutdown in data update): Not detailed in the given text [33] 03 Energy - Chemical Industry Chain Data Tracking - Industry chain inventory, operating rate, and processing fee percentile overview: Data for various products such as PX, PTA, BZ, EB, EG, MA, PE, PP, and PVC are provided, including inventory, inventory percentile in the past three years, operating rate, operating rate percentile in the past three years, processing fee or profit, and processing fee percentile in the past three years [38] - Aromatic chain basis seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [39][41] - Olefin chain basis seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [43] - Aromatic chain inventory seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [45] - Olefin chain inventory seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [48][51] - Aromatic chain operating rate seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [55] - Olefin chain operating rate seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [56][59] - Aromatic chain profit/processing fee seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [62] - Olefin chain profit/processing fee seasonality: Not detailed in the given text [65][68]