碳酸锂周报：仍是去库格局-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still in a destocking pattern. Amidst news disturbances, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated sharply this week, and the long - term buying value is significant [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Supply - Domestic Supply: Domestic mica monthly output increased, lithium spodumene and recycling output continued to grow, and domestic lithium salt production capacity increased in November. The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has been identified, with expected cost increase, but the actual resumption of production needs to be tracked. The lithium carbonate futures reached a high of 85,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials [11] - Foreign Supply (Imports): In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports, while Mali's imports were zero. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). Additionally, 8,000 tons of lithium sulfate were imported from Chile [11] Demand - In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 10.54% and 11.58% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong. Solid - state batteries are a continuously focused area with strong policy support, and currently, more attention is on the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate [11] Inventory - Weekly inventory has been decreasing month - on - month for about 3 months. This week, it was 124,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,405 tons, and the destocking is accelerating. Warehouse receipts on Friday were 27,332 tons, a decrease of 309 tons during the week. Lithium ore weekly inventory increased for two consecutive weeks [11] Production Cost - Process improvements may reduce production costs. The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has decreased recently, and raw material prices decreased during the week [11] Balance Sheet - Without considering changes in mining permits, it is estimated that there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November [11] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking Price and Spread - Price Changes: As of Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton (-0.2%); lithium mica was 2,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton (-2.75%), with a cost reduction of 1,410 yuan/ton; lithium spodumene (6%) was 927 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 US dollars/ton (-1.8%), with a cost reduction of 1,071 yuan/ton [23] - Spread Analysis: The spread between lithium carbonate and nickel strengthened during the week. The strategy of "long 1 and short 5" for the basis and monthly spread of lithium carbonate is presented [24][28] Production and Capacity - Weekly Production and Capacity: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,534 tons (+454 tons), and the weekly production capacity utilization rate was 55.21% (+0.77%). Among them, the production capacity utilization rate of lithium spodumene was 65.17% (+0.47%), mica was 31.98% (+1.38%), and salt lakes was 58.37% (-3.84%). The recycling end production capacity utilization rate was 29.88% (-6.69%) [34] - Monthly Production: In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 775,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The production of lithium hydroxide in October was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% [35] - New Capacity: In November, the lithium element production capacity will continue to grow (110,000 tons). Newly put - into - production projects include 10,000 tons of lithium salt from Tibet Mining, 30,000 tons from Luopu Xihai New Energy, 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from Tianqi Lithium, and 40,000 tons of lithium salt from Salt Lake Co., Ltd [36] Import and Export - Lithium Ore Imports: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports. In October, China's lithium ore production (spodumene + mica) was 20,000 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [44] - Lithium Carbonate Imports: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, of which 16,200 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons (+46%) [47] Downstream Demand - Positive Electrode Materials: In October, the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 11.58% and 10.54% month - on - month respectively [48] - Terminal Demand: From January to September, the winning bid capacity for energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15%, and the cumulative sales from January to September were 11.198 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.6% [57] Other Factors - Raw Material Prices: The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has been decreasing since June, and the price of potash fertilizer has fluctuated slightly recently. The US added potash fertilizer as a critical mineral on November 6 [61][66] - Profit Analysis: The profit from externally purchased lithium spodumene is slightly positive, while the lithium mica end is still in a loss [68] - Balance Sheet Analysis: The balance sheet shows that without considering the shutdown/restart of lithium mines in Jiangxi, there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November. New capacities of lithium spodumene and salt lakes are being put into production and ramping up, and the production schedule of positive electrode materials in November is continuously improving [72][73]