橡胶周报：关注结构性机会-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to structural opportunities in the rubber market. It recommends considering a strategy of going long on light - colored rubber and short on dark - colored rubber, as natural rubber starts seasonal inventory accumulation, and synthetic rubber reduces production and inventory while its raw material butadiene is expected to remain weak [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - Strategy View: Natural rubber begins seasonal inventory accumulation, and synthetic rubber reduces production and inventory. Consider a long - light - short - dark strategy. The overall driving force of the rubber market is weak, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but production in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may be limited due to weather, and domestic production areas are about to enter a reduction period. Attention should be paid to synthetic rubber supply and substitution [10]. - Import: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month decrease of 75,000 tons (-10%), and the cumulative import was 6.782 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 995,000 tons (+17.2%). Attention should be paid to the implementation of zero - tariff policies between China and African diplomatic countries and Thailand, and the EUDR is expected to be postponed [10]. - Demand: This week, tire production started with a slight month - on - month increase, and the full - steel tire production reached a relatively high seasonal level. Tire inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation on passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [10]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory increased by 17,100 tons to 1.056 million tons, mainly due to a 20,000 - ton increase in dark - colored rubber [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The raw material butadiene is expected to have sufficient supply. There are many maintenance devices for cis - butadiene rubber in November, resulting in production reduction and inventory decrease [10]. 3.2 02 Data Chart Tracking - Raw Material Performance: The performance of raw materials is significantly weaker than the same period last year, as shown by the data of Thai glue, Thai cup glue, and Yunnan glue [14]. - Valuation and Basis: RU valuation is very reasonable, NR basis is still in a strong area, and the RU - NR spread is strengthening. The data also shows the basis and spread trends of various rubber types such as full - milk rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and Vietnamese 3L rubber [17][22][30]. - Synthetic Rubber Supply: The weekly start - up of cis - butadiene rubber decreased month - on - month, but the profit turned positive, and the start - up is expected to increase in the later period. The monthly production of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 22% year - on - year, and that of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 28% year - on - year. From January to September, the import of natural rubber increased by 19.6% year - on - year [44][50][52]. - Demand: Tire production start - up increased month - on - month, and inventory increased. The consumption of natural rubber decreased slightly year - on - year, and the semi - steel tire demand declined rapidly. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative export increased year - on - year. In July, the US tire import volume increased month - on - month [54][56][64]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased month - on - month, BR warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the port inventory of butadiene was higher than the same period last year [66][73]. - Profit: The profit of natural rubber is still in a loss state [77]. - Balance Sheet: Seasonal inventory accumulation may have started in November. The supply - demand difference from August to October shows an excess, which is inconsistent with the social inventory reduction statistics of Longzhong. The inventory accumulation amplitude mainly depends on the import increment [79][80].