全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251031-20251107）：美元流动性持续紧张，海外调整A股相对坚挺-20251109

Group 1: Market Overview - The US government shutdown has led to a tightening financial environment, causing global equity markets to mostly decline[4] - The overnight general collateral repurchase rate fluctuated between 4.14% and 4.24%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 3.9% excess reserve rate[4] - Despite global market adjustments, the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index recorded positive returns, indicating strong investor confidence in Chinese assets[4] Group 2: Fund Flows - As of November 5, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $20.14 billion and domestic inflows of $68.98 billion[4] - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $6.18 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $26.31 billion[4] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The valuation percentile of the Shanghai Composite Index is at 89.5%, second only to the S&P 500, but still lower than US equities in absolute terms[4] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the CSI 300 increased from 79% to 83%, indicating improved relative performance[4] Group 4: Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6728.80, below the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.19, reflecting increased hedging demand[4] - The implied volatility structure of the CSI 300 options showed a significant decline, indicating cautious sentiment in the market[4] Group 5: Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 66.90%, up from 63.00% the previous week[4] - The US September existing home sales increased by 4.1%, marking five consecutive months of marginal improvement[4]