宏观周报：中美经贸会谈取得重要成果-20251109

Domestic Macro Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, aiming for GDP per capita to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035[2][9]. - The plan outlines that economic and social development should maintain an appropriate speed during the "15th Five-Year" period, with a focus on enhancing living standards and promoting consumption[9][10]. - Infrastructure policies include promoting the application of "AI + healthcare" and accelerating the cultivation of new application scenarios[3][11]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank aims to narrow the short-term interest rate corridor and enhance the role of policy interest rates, with expectations of diverse monetary mechanisms by 2026[3][14]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing expenditure structures and increasing the central government's financial contribution, with a goal to strengthen financial support for major strategic tasks and basic livelihood[3][16][17]. Real Estate and Trade Policies - Recent real estate policies aim to promote high-quality development, optimize the supply of affordable housing, and reform financing and sales systems[4][18]. - In trade, significant progress was made in US-China economic talks, with the US agreeing to suspend a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 24% tariff for one year[4][22][23]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal divisions on future rate decisions, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintained their rates[4][25]. - The US government remains in a state of partial shutdown, affecting economic data availability and future monetary policy decisions[4][25]. Risk Factors - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy execution may fall short of expectations[5][29].