11月资产配置月报：11月大类资产怎么看？-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for November is A-shares > US stocks > Gold > Convertible bonds > Chinese bonds > US bonds [1]. - Event shocks are the core clues for global large - scale asset trading. The Sino - US trade friction has temporarily ended, but the game between expected and actual negotiation results may continue. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but internal differences among Fed officials on the subsequent monetary policy path exceed market expectations. The lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown and the dilemma of balancing inflation and the labor market pose a decision - making dilemma for the Fed. The market's continuous pre - emptive trading on interest rate cuts since August has led to a divergence in interest rate cut expectations, which may trigger adjustments in interest - rate - sensitive assets such as US bonds and gold, and these adjustments may mean more cost - effective allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Macro Trading Main Line - Sino - US Trade Friction Repeated: The Sino - US trade friction heated up due to disputes over ship charging policies and rare earth export control policies. After a series of confrontations, both sides released signals of easing. The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the suspension of relevant export control and investigation measures for one year, and the cancellation of a 10% fentanyl tariff. The global risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then fell, affecting large - scale asset prices. Understanding market expectations is the key to grasping event - shock market trends [11][12][13]. - Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, but there was a rare three - way divergence in voting. Powell indicated that a December interest rate cut is not certain. The lack of major economic data due to the US government shutdown makes the Fed's decision - making difficult. The market's relatively consistent expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to show divergence, which is reflected in the reversal of the US bond yield and the adjustment of gold prices. The end time of the US government shutdown is a key factor affecting the December interest rate cut decision, and the divergence may mean better trading opportunities [24][25][28]. 3.2 Monthly Asset Performance Review - Equity: In October, Japanese stocks were the strongest, and Hong Kong stocks were the weakest, with the overall performance being Japanese stocks > US stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points in October but faced difficulties in further short - term breakthroughs. The small - cap stocks performed well, and the market embraced dividend - low - volatility sectors while technology - growth sectors faced pressure. US stocks: They were mixed, but technology stocks showed strong momentum, with a short - term inflection point after the release of technology stocks' third - quarter reports and the Fed's FOMC meeting. Japanese stocks: The Nikkei 225 index rose 16.64% in October, driven by factors such as postponed interest rate hikes, "Takamachi Sanae trading" expectations, and the depreciation of the yen. Hong Kong stocks: They rose and then retreated, and the Hang Seng Technology Index significantly underperformed A - share technology stocks [35][40][43]. - Bonds: Except for Japanese bonds, the yields of major national government bonds in the world declined to varying degrees in October. Chinese bonds: The yield fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by stock market adjustments, Sino - US tariff games, and the central bank's resumption of buying and selling government bonds. US bonds: The yield first declined and then rose, with the US government's credit crisis, Sino - US friction, and the game on the December interest rate cut expectation as key variables. Japanese bonds: They weakened slightly after the "Takamachi Sanae trading" in October, with the expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies offsetting each other, and the government bond curve first steepened and then flattened [56][63][73]. - Commodities: Precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then significantly adjusted in October, driven by factors such as cooling sentiment, over - valuation, and the rebound of the US dollar index. The prices of black - series commodities and new - energy materials showed limited upward momentum. Black - series commodities: Rebar prices remained low due to weak real estate and infrastructure, while coking coal and coke rose slightly due to anti - involution policies. New - energy materials: The prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon fluctuated significantly with changes in expectations of anti - involution policies [75][86]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index strengthened in October, and the US dollar and US bonds continued to deviate. The strengthening of the US dollar index was mainly due to the weakening of overseas currencies such as the euro and the yen. The RMB continued to appreciate slightly in October, affected by factors such as the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, better - than - expected export data, and strong stock index performance [89][93]. 3.3 Monthly Macro Events Overview - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was successfully held from October 20 to 23, 2025, and the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was officially announced on October 28, providing a direction for future five - year development [101]. - Takamachi Sanae was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan on October 21. The "Takamachi Sanae trading" heated up, driving the Japanese stock market to rise continuously in October, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 16.64% in a single month, while the yen exchange rate was significantly under pressure [102]. - Global major central banks held interest rate meetings in the last week of October. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but there was a large divergence among officials on the December interest rate cut decision. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, and two policy committee members opposed it. The European Central Bank also remained on hold for the third consecutive time, maintaining the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and lending facility rate unchanged [104][106][107].