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建筑材料:多省鼓励水泥业兼并重组,供给侧改革加速推进
Huafu Securities·2025-11-09 13:59

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][64]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that multiple provinces are encouraging mergers and restructuring in the cement industry, accelerating supply-side reforms. Key measures include prohibiting new cement clinker capacity in certain areas and promoting industry consolidation to enhance concentration [2][11]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the building materials capacity cycle due to accelerating supply-side reforms and a favorable interest rate environment, which is expected to restore home-buying willingness and capability, thereby stabilizing the real estate market [4][11]. - The report notes that the sales area of commercial housing has been declining for over three years, indicating that the industry is entering a bottoming phase, with increasing sensitivity to policy easing [11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality blue-chip stocks benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [4]. 2. Undervalued stocks benefiting from credit risk alleviation in the B-end, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [4]. 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [4]. Weekly High-Frequency Data - As of November 7, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 343.4 CNY/ton, showing a 0.2% increase from the previous week but an 18.0% decrease year-on-year [3][12]. - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1157.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.9% decrease from the previous week and a 15.9% decrease year-on-year [3][21]. Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 0.39%. The building materials sector (Shenwan) index rose by 0.8% [3][49]. - Among sub-sectors, cement products increased by 4.88%, glass manufacturing by 4.27%, and other building materials by 2.42% [3][49].