CPI转正的背后

CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI turned positive at 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking a 9-month high[2] - The core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend for the sixth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - Food prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[3] - Key drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase include the "anti-involution" trend, rising prices in the non-ferrous sector, and increased demand for general consumer goods[3] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials remained flat[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to see a mild recovery in November and December, with an annual average around 0%[4] - The PPI is projected to fluctuate at low levels, with an annual average around -2.7%[4] - The performance of six major commodities (crude oil, coal, rebar, copper, lithium carbonate, and pork) will significantly influence future PPI readings[4]