Guoxin Securities·2025-11-09 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the engineering machinery industry [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a new development phase driven by domestic renewal demand recovery, rapid overseas export growth, and accelerated electrification transformation [2][3][4]. - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 237.6 billion in 2024, with a highly concentrated competitive landscape where the top three companies hold over 30% market share [2][21]. - Domestic demand is stabilizing and recovering, supported by infrastructure investment and equipment renewal policies, while electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle [3][27][39]. - Overseas exports are growing rapidly, driven by infrastructure construction in Belt and Road Initiative countries and the competitive strength of Chinese manufacturers [4][51][62]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Excavator sales in China are recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 21.50% in the first nine months of 2025 [3][27]. - The recovery is driven by three main factors: sustained infrastructure investment, the arrival of the equipment renewal cycle, and the expansion of application scenarios [3][34]. - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electrification [3][45]. Overseas Market - The export volume of excavators is expected to grow at a CAGR of 38% from 2015 to 2024, with significant opportunities in high-end markets in Europe and North America [4][51]. - In 2024, exports to Belt and Road countries reached USD 33.298 billion, accounting for 62.97% of total exports [58]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share in overseas markets [68][60]. Competitive Landscape - The global engineering machinery market is dominated by Caterpillar and Komatsu, with Chinese manufacturers like XCMG and SANY showing significant growth in market share [68][60]. - The overall market share of Chinese manufacturers increased from 13.4% in 2013 to 18.4% in 2024, indicating a positive trend [68][69]. Investment Value Analysis - The CSI Engineering Machinery Index focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 50% of its weight in large-cap stocks [5][74]. - The index is currently valued at a historically high level, but with expected growth in domestic demand and global expansion, the industry is anticipated to experience significant profit growth [5][74].