沪锌周报：精炼锌产量增加不及预期；下游开工下行-20251109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - Demand: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - Inventory: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - Related Industries: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].