通胀数据点评：通胀回升的三大因素

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In October, the CPI increased to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, and slightly above the expected -0.1%[1] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3% in the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Inflation - The rise in October's CPI was primarily driven by a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, with food CPI increasing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year[3] - Core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices, with hotel accommodation and airfare prices increasing by 8.6% and 4.5% respectively[3] - The increase in copper prices, which rose by 7% month-on-month, significantly contributed to the PPI, while coal prices also saw a month-on-month increase of 7.5%[8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward pressure on inflation from commodity price increases is expected to continue, but the impact on downstream prices may take time to materialize, with a forecasted PPI of -2.2% year-on-year for Q4[4] - Despite improvements in service consumption and high gold prices supporting core CPI, the overall increase in CPI for the year is expected to be limited due to reduced government subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI[4]