Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum 2512 closed at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong and volatile trend. The direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged, resulting in macro uncertainties. During the off-season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances in overseas supply, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level, so Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile [3]. - Macroscopically, the direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged. In terms of supply, domestic ore is in short supply, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year and is accumulating inventory again. The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. In terms of demand, the overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with long and short factors, and uncertainties are increasing. During the off - season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances overseas, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. Alumina continues to accumulate inventory, and its fundamentals are still weak, so it is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - This week, Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile. The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai Aluminum continued to be under pressure week - on - week, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3M spread continued to weaken week - on - week. The high price of the Shanghai Aluminum futures market put pressure on the spot premium of aluminum ingots [7][11][15]. Fundamental Data - Supply of domestic ore is tight, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed [19][21]. - The monthly spread of alumina changed little. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.84 million tons, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year. The alumina import window narrowed, and the overall inventory increased by 56,000 tons to 4.788 million tons [22][26][29]. - The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. The weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 70 tons to 854,000 tons. Aluminum imports are at a premium. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [37][39][44]. - The overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week due to the high price of the futures market and the off - season effect [51][56]. - From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators in November was 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of washing machines in November was 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 17% year - on - year. The production plans of domestic component enterprises in November varied, with the overall production plan expected to decline month - on - month [57][64][74].
沪铝周报：铜铝比高位，沪铝偏强震荡；氧化铝仍累库-20251109
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-09 14:11