美联储降息路径趋向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].