博弈园区个券超跌机会
HUAXI Securities·2025-11-09 14:22

Group 1: Report's Overall Situation - The report is a weekly review of public REITs from November 3 - 7, 2025, focusing on market trends, investment opportunities, and risks in the REITs sector [1][10] - The overall market is weak, with the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closing at 1041.51 points, down 0.40% for the week, affected by factors such as weak fundamentals, share unlocks, and secondary offerings [10] - As of Friday, the total market capitalization of 77 listed REITs in China was 220.6 billion yuan, with a floating market capitalization of 110.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Secondary Market Overall Performance - After the third - quarter reports, the REITs sector continued to show divergence, with 33 rising, 1 falling, and 43 falling. Industrial parks and warehousing logistics led the decline with a 1.8% drop, while the municipal environmental protection sector led the gain with a 0.65% increase [2][19] - REITs trading sentiment weakened, with average daily trading volume, average daily turnover, and average daily turnover rate decreasing by 13.43%, 10.45%, and 0.05 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [22] Sub - sectors - Industrial Parks: The sector continued to face pressure in the third - quarter reports, with significant divergence in individual bond fundamentals. Some projects' occupancy rates dropped to 60 - 70%. The average distribution rate of the sector has increased to 4.60%. Consider playing the oversold opportunities of some individual bonds, such as CICC Liandong Kechuang REIT [28] - Rental Housing: The sector was dragged down by China Resources Youchao REIT, which fell 3.21% this week. The project plans to conduct a secondary offering through private placement to original holders, which may bring risks such as price decline and equity dilution. However, the sector's liquidity is good, and the distribution rate has increased from 2.83% at the end of June to 3.14%, so it is still worthy of attention [31] - Transportation Facilities: Continue to focus on road assets in the eastern regions such as Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, China Merchants Expressway, etc. Note that three highway REITs will have large - scale share unlocks in November, which may bring trading pressure [34] - Consumer Infrastructure: It is the golden season for consumer REITs in the fourth quarter. Focus on projects with high distribution rates, stable leasing performance, and large consumption potential, such as Shanghai Bailian Consumer, Beijing Wumei Consumer, and Capital Outlets [5][36] - Municipal Environmental Protection: Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT performed best this week, rising 2.25%. Pay attention to the heating duration and heat source procurement price adjustment during the heating season [38] Group 3: Primary Market Shan Zheng Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT - On November 6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a review opinion. Key concerns include heat source procurement (stability and unit price) and heating fee income (historical and predicted shutdown rates, "same - city, same - price" policy, etc.) [43] Other Upcoming Issuance Projects - As of November 7, 2025, there are about 3 potential issuance projects remaining this year. Currently, 1 is ready for sale after pricing (Huaxia Anbo Warehousing Logistics), 7 have received exchange feedback, and 1 has been accepted by the exchange [44] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Industrial Parks: Consider the oversold opportunities of CICC Liandong Kechuang REIT, which has an occupancy rate of over 90% in the third - quarter report, and also pay attention to Guotai Haitong Dongjiu New Economy and Guotai Haitong Lingang Innovation Industrial Park [28] - Rental Housing: Focus on high - distribution - rate projects such as Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing, Shekou Rental Housing, and Xiamen Anju, which fell significantly last week [4] - Consumer Facilities: In the fourth quarter, focus on high - distribution - rate, stable - leasing, and high - consumption - potential projects such as Shanghai Bailian Consumer, Beijing Wumei Consumer, and Capital Outlets [5]