买在市场纠结时

Market Overview - Since November, the bond market has shown a V-shaped trend in long-term interest rates, but the volatility has narrowed compared to September and October, indicating a state of indecision in the market[1] - The central bank's bond purchases have resumed, but the scale of operations in October was limited, which does not support a strong bullish sentiment in the market[1] Regulatory Changes - The new redemption fee regulations for bond funds are expected to be implemented soon, with a proposed exemption threshold of 6 months for fee waivers, which could limit institutional flexibility[2] - If the exemption period is shortened to 3 months, it may significantly reduce the impact of the new regulations on public fund liabilities[2] Economic Indicators - October's PMI, export, and inflation data have been released, showing that manufacturing PMI and export performance are relatively weak, while inflation data indicates signs of recovery[3] - The upcoming financial and economic data for October will focus on credit, consumption, investment, and real estate, which could influence interest rate cut expectations if macroeconomic pressures increase[3] Investment Strategy - In the current indecisive market, the pace of duration chasing has slowed, with funds net buying 757 billion yuan, primarily in credit bonds, while government bonds saw a net sell of 44 billion yuan[4] - The average duration of interest rate bonds remains stable at 3.7-3.8 years, indicating that risk exposure is still manageable[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]