KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-09 14:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have surpassed 800 RMB per ton, with coking coal prices also rising in tandem. The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal reached 817 RMB per ton as of November 7, marking a significant increase due to supply constraints and rising demand driven by heating needs from a cold wave [3][4] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB for 2025 [4][13] - Coking coal prices are expected to follow thermal coal trends, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][13] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The upward price movement is expected to follow a structured process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profitability balance [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand dynamics, with a significant correlation to thermal coal prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It highlights that both thermal and coking coal prices are at historical lows, providing room for rebound [5][14] - Four main lines of investment are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Energy 4. Growth logic: companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 4.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.7 percentage points, with most major coal companies showing positive growth [8][10] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 16.36, and the PB ratio is 1.43, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [24][29] Thermal Coal Market Overview - As of November 7, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 817 RMB per ton, reflecting a 6.10% increase from the previous week [17] - The report notes a slight increase in coal mine operating rates and a small rise in port inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [17][28] Coking Coal Market Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port reached 1860 RMB per ton, showing a 5.68% increase, with expectations for further price adjustments based on thermal coal trends [18][20]