南华期货锌产业周报：11月维持高位震荡，观望出口数据-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, zinc prices were driven by LME at the beginning of the week, with SHFE zinc breaking through upwards and then maintaining high - level oscillations. The macro - sentiment is neutral this week. The US government shutdown makes it difficult to predict subsequent interest rate cuts due to data shortages, and Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Although some US economic data shows weakness, the ADP data slightly eases labor concerns. The US dollar index breaks through 100 due to liquidity tightness, suppressing the upside of non - ferrous metals [2]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic smelters' winter storage is not over, and raw materials are tight in the short term. TC is under pressure, slightly suppressing the willingness to start production, but refined zinc production is still at a historical high, with a projected slight decline in November. Overseas, refined zinc remains in a tight supply pattern, and LME inventories continue to decline. On the demand side, there is no suitable driving force in the short term, and it remains stable. Looking ahead, although the supply is still stronger than demand, there is expected to be some improvement in November due to the opening of the export window and the compression of smelting profits. It is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, so attention should be paid to macro data and the supply - demand game [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The US government shutdown affects interest rate cut predictions. Powell's hawkish speech reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. US economic data shows mixed signals, and the high - level oscillation of the US dollar index suppresses non - ferrous metals [2]. - Fundamental - level: - Supply: Domestic smelters' winter storage leads to short - term raw material tightness. TC decline may slightly suppress production start - up in November, but production is still at a high level. Overseas, supply is tight, and LME inventories are decreasing. - Demand: There is no short - term driving force, remaining stable. In the near - term, the zinc market's fundamentals are mixed. In the long - term, macro factors are generally optimistic, but the demand side needs support from infrastructure and real estate [2][5][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The current SHFE zinc main contract is in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, with potential upward drivers influenced by exports and macro factors. The pressure level is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 22,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume and open interest are neutral [10][11]. - Short - term Futures Strategy: High - sell and low - buy within the range. Lightly go long around 22,200 - 22,300 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 22,100 yuan/ton; go short around 22,900 - 23,000 yuan/ton with a stop - loss around 23,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong prediction of zinc prices in November, short - selling is not recommended for now [11]. - Short - term Options Strategy: Mainly adopt the option double - selling strategy [11]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: - Basis Strategy: Although the current basis is at a historical low, due to weak fundamentals, going long on the basis is not recommended. - Calendar Spread Strategy: There is currently no recommendation. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: With the strong overseas and weak domestic market, the internal - external price difference is expanding. Consider cross - market arbitrage, specifically selling overseas and buying domestically, and it is advisable to enter the market now [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Short - term Futures Strategy: It has been continuously profitable, and the point prediction has been accurate in the past two weeks. - Options Strategy: Adopt the wide - straddle options strategy. - Internal - External Arbitrage Strategy: It is advisable to enter the market. - Zinc Risk Management Recommendations: - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, worry about price drops. Sell 75% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 22,700 yuan/ton. - Raw Material Management: For low raw - material inventory, worry about price increases. Buy 50% of the SHFE zinc main contract at 21,700 yuan/ton [17][18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: SHFE zinc inventories are decreasing; domestic processing fees TC are accelerating their decline; the export window for domestic zinc ingots is open, and SMM predicts an export volume of about 10,000 tons in October; LME inventories are continuously decreasing; LME spot premiums remain at a high level [19][20]. - Negative Information: The downstream开工率 in the domestic market is declining, and the domestic spot premium is weak, reflecting weak actual demand [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Chinese Data and Events: China's October M2/social financing data (expected to be announced between the 10th and 13th); SMM/Mysteel domestic social inventory update on the 10th; SHFE/SMM weekly inventory data on the 14th. - International Data and Events: US October PPI and retail sales data; speeches by multiple Fed officials on inflation and employment; actual changes in China's export volume and LME inventories (especially Asian warehouses) [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Internal Market: Zinc prices oscillated at a high level this week, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton. Profitable positions are mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis - calendar spread structure is stable, and the SHFE zinc term structure maintains a C structure [24][26]. - External Market: LME zinc was relatively strong this week, closing at 3,057.5 US dollars/ton. Investment companies and credit institutions hold a large proportion of positions, and the LME zinc term structure maintains a B structure due to inventory tightness [28][34]. - Internal - External Price Difference Tracking: The internal - external price difference continues to expand, mainly due to the difference in fundamentals between the two markets [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline in November, and the smelting start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [38]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking In September, zinc ore imports reached 505,400 tons, a slight increase. Currently, due to the influence of domestic smelting start - up rates, zinc ore imports are at a five - year high. However, due to the weakening internal - external price ratio, the profit of imported ores is poor, and importers are more inclined to wait and see [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Zinc Concentrate Monthly Balance: The actual consumption exceeds production and imports in most months, showing a supply - demand gap [43][44]. - Refined Zinc Monthly Balance: The production, net imports, and consumption data show different supply - demand balances in different months, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit [44]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction In November, domestic supply enters the winter storage period. Imported ores are in a state of continuous loss, and raw materials are expected to be tight, with a slight decline in the start - up rate [46]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction The开工率 this week was stable [52].