南华期货铁合金周报：继续累库，去库压力较大-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the ferroalloy market is the imbalance between high inventory and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the gap between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. With the steel mills' profitability rate falling below 40% and iron - water production expected to decline, ferroalloy demand is likely to decrease. After the macro - sentiment fades, the ferroalloy market will return to its fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but will be supported by the cost side, expected to fluctuate [2]. - In the short - term, downstream finished - product inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the steel mills' profitability is declining, which may lead to a negative feedback loop in the black - metal industry, further weakening ferroalloy demand. In the long - term, the anti - involution expectation exists, but without substantial progress, there is a high risk of price fluctuations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - High inventory and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and the market doesn't expect further production increase. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and both silicon ferro and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon manganese inventory rising by 1.5% and silicon ferro by 9.3% week - on - week [2]. - Cost support challenges: The correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices is weakening, and the increase in coking coal prices doesn't drive up ferroalloy prices [2]. - Anti - involution expectation and weak reality: The anti - involution sentiment remains, but the high inventory and weak demand situation persists. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with a high risk of price spikes followed by drops [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Technically, the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages of ferroalloys are downward, and the MACD red bars are shrinking [11]. - Price Range: The price range of the silicon ferro main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract 2601 is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Strategies: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and no basis strategy is recommended. Although the 1 - 5 calendar spread of ferroalloys is at a five - year low, it's not advisable to buy the spread immediately due to high inventory and weak demand. The 1 - 5 spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse - arbitrage is also high [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of silicon ferro is 5300 - 6000, and that of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of silicon ferro is 12.75% (18.8% in the three - year historical percentile), and that of silicon manganese is 9.62% (4.4% in the three - year historical percentile) [13]. - Hedging Strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it's recommended to short ferroalloy futures to prevent inventory depreciation. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it's recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with a capacity replacement ratio of at least 1.5:1. The fourth round of coke price increases has started. China's exports of automobiles, ships, and electromechanical products have increased [14]. - Negative News: The steel market is in a weak season, with steel mills' profitability declining, iron - water production decreasing, and the plate market having high inventory and production. Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [14][15]. - Weekly Data: Silicon ferro production was 11410 tons (up 90 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese production was 201880 tons (down 5845 tons week - on - week). Silicon ferro factory inventory was 78690 tons (up 6700 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese factory inventory was 319500 tons (up 5000 tons week - on - week) [14][16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's M2 money supply for October. - Next Friday: China's year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 and industrial added value above designated size for October. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - Unilateral Trends and Fund Movements: The silicon ferro main contract 2601 closed at 5526, up 0.47% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 357300 lots, up 12.14% week - on - week. The silicon manganese main contract 01 closed at 5760, down 0.21% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 571100 lots, up 8.89% week - on - week. The net position of silicon ferro is short, and the net short position of silicon manganese is increasing [17]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of some silicon ferro and silicon manganese contracts is improving to a backwardation structure. The basis has been fluctuating slightly. The 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low, and it's not recommended to buy it immediately. With the anti - involution news, the 1 - 5 spread may further weaken [21][22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy production profit is declining. Silicon ferro production remains high, and there is a strong incentive for enterprises to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [37]. - The export profit of silicon ferro has improved, and its export volume is expected to increase [63]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: As the off - season approaches and production profit has been falling, there is a higher possibility of production cuts. With the arrival of the flat - water season, silicon manganese production in the southern region may decline, and overall ferroalloy production is expected to decrease [67]. - Demand: Downstream demand is entering the off - season. The profit of downstream products like rebar and hot - rolled coils is declining due to inventory accumulation, which will suppress the demand for ferroalloys. Iron - water production is likely to decline, and ferroalloy demand for steel - making may also decrease [67][77]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to decline due to forced cancellation and seasonal factors, and the total inventory will gradually decrease [67]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Projection - Due to the decline in production profit, especially for silicon ferro, there is a strong incentive for production cuts, and the production is expected to decline slightly [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloys is affected by the off - season and the decline in downstream product profit. The high iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the demand for ferroalloys in steel - making may decrease [77]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. After the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts, new receipts will be registered, and the total inventory is expected to increase [93].