Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese faces pressure, but the cost side provides some support, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend. Previous short positions can be reduced on dips [5] - For unilateral trading, due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Silicon - iron: The supply side shows no downward trend, with the start - up rate and output of sample enterprises both rising and remaining at a high level. The demand side sees a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and an unexpected decline in hot - metal output. Although hot - metal output may rebound after the end of the phased production restrictions in Tangshan, there is a downward expectation on the raw - material demand side due to poor steel profits. The cost side has support as the spot price of thermal coal hits a new high this year, and the ferroalloy electricity price in the southwest production area has risen significantly after entering the dry season [5] - Silicon - manganese: The supply side has a slight decline but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The demand side shows a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and more high - cost area steel mills are undergoing maintenance, increasing market concerns about negative feedback. Under the pressure of high - level supply and weakening demand, the silicon - manganese inventory has continued to rise recently. The cost side has temporary support as overseas manganese ore quotes are rising steadily, and the electricity cost has increased during the dry season [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 12.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 tons [11] - Supply: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18%; the weekly supply of silicon - iron is 11.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%; the weekly supply of silicon - manganese (99%) is 20.19 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of November 7th, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.67 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 31.95 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons [13] 3. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Cost and Profit - Silicon - manganese: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5805 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 185 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 48.0%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5834 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 274 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.7%; in Guangxi, the production cost is 6339 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 739 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 4.8%; in Guizhou, the production cost is 6159 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 579 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 7.0%. The production cost in the north is 5814 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 217 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost is 6234 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 643 yuan/ton [31] - Silicon - iron: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 336 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 31.6%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 25.8%; in Shaanxi, the production cost is 5663 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 543 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.7%; in Qinghai, the production cost is 5717 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 547 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 14.3%; in Gansu, the production cost is 5765 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 565 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 11.6% [42] Other Data - Spot price - basis: The document provides historical data charts of the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17, the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi, the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese, and the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron [18] - Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises: It shows the weekly output and start - up rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises [23] - Steel - mill production situation: It includes the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel output, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills [29] - Cost of manganese ore: It shows the price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotation of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ores from different origins [40] - Cost of carbon elements and electricity price: It shows the prices of Fugu blue - charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices [50][52] - Steel - procurement prices of representative steel mills in Hebei: It shows the monthly procurement prices of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B and silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [54] - Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron: It shows the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, as well as the cumulative year - on - year change [60][62][65] - Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron: It shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron [67][68] - Demand for metallic magnesium: It shows the price of Fugu metallic magnesium Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of metallic magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi [70] - Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and steel mills: It shows the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory available days [73][76][78] - Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports: It shows the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory available days, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants [81][82]
供需边际走弱，成本端有所支撑
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-09 14:55