铁水高位回落，矿价偏空对待

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal demand is the main factor influencing medium - term iron ore prices, with domestic demand weakening and overseas demand maintaining high growth. Iron ore fundamentals have changed significantly, and prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [3]. - Unilateral trading should adopt a bearish approach, while arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% or 22.7 million tons. Australian shipments decreased by 0.3% or 2.3 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian shipments increased by 3.5% or 11 million tons year - on - year [14]. - From the perspective of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.3% or 1 million tons year - on - year, BHP's by 1% or 2.5 million tons, FMG's increased by 5.6% or 8.9 million tons, and VALE's increased by 0.2% or 0.5 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by 5 million tons year - on - year [14]. - In the first three quarters, the total output of the four major mines was 852 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% or 10 million tons, with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipments were 830 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% or 1 million tons [14]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments is 5.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% or 14 million tons. Australian non - mainstream shipments decreased by 7% or 8 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian non - mainstream shipments increased by 13% or 10.6 million tons year - on - year [16]. - An increase of $10 in the average Platts index corresponds to an annual increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production. Non - mainstream ore shipments improved in the third quarter, and the year - on - year increase in shipments in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down [16]. Iron Ore Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased significantly, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase of nearly 4 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory [22]. - Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons. The total domestic iron element inventory is currently at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [25]. Iron Ore Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.7% or 11 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 3.5% or 12.6 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 5.6% or 9 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 1.7% or 3 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.5% or 11.9 million tons year - on - year [30]. - In the first nine months, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 2% or 15 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year - on - year. India's overseas crude steel production increased by 10% or 11.6 million tons year - on - year in the first nine months, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [30].