关注支撑表现

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that they have fallen to a key position, and attention should be paid to whether effective support can be formed. The 10-year treasury bond futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday this week and entered a short-term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support of TL2512 around 115.8 - 115.9. It is currently possibly in the fourth wave of the uptrend since the end of September. Next week, the 5-week and 20-week moving averages will also move up and approach this area. [2] - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the roll - over process is gradually unfolding, and attention should be paid to the participation opportunities of the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract. This week, treasury bond futures fell across the board, trading activity declined, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contract generally increased (except for T), and the IRR decreased (except for T). As the delivery month of the 2512 contract approaches, more attention can be paid to the 2603 contract. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Previous Trend Review - This week's market declined, and the bulls failed to maintain their upward momentum, entering a short - term adjustment. TL2512 adjusted after being pressured by the 20 - week moving average, and both T2512 and TL2512 on the daily chart fell below the 5 - day moving average, entering a short - term adjustment. [6] 1.2 Future Market Outlook - Attention should be paid to the support of TL2512 around 115.8 - 115.9, which is the neckline of the bottom head - and - shoulders pattern. Also, pay attention to the support of the 5 - week and 20 - week moving averages. TL2512 may be in the fourth wave of the uptrend since the end of September. Next week, the 5 - week and 20 - week moving averages will approach this area, and attention should be paid to whether effective support can be formed to maintain the bottom reversal pattern. [8] 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, treasury bond futures fell across the board. As of November 7, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.470, 105.910, 108.445, and 115.95 yuan respectively, down 0.074, 0.155, 0.235, and 0.73 yuan from the previous week. [14] - Trading activity of treasury bond futures declined overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume ratio decreased for each maturity. [14] - As of November 7, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased, indicating that participants are gradually rolling over their positions. [14] - The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of each maturity generally increased (except for T), with the CTD net basis of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being - 0.02, - 0.03, - 0.02, and 0.00 yuan respectively. The IRR decreased (except for T), with the IRR of the CTD of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.58%, and 1.43% respectively. As the roll - over progresses, the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy of the 2603 contract can be considered. The 2512 - 2603 contract spread generally decreased (except for TS). [17]