Topsec(SZ:002212) Guotou Securities·2025-11-09 15:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company, with a 6-month target price of 12.78 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 10.12 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue and profit declines in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 3.76 billion CNY, down 46.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.71 billion CNY, a decrease of 568.00% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue and gross margin in Q3 2025 is attributed to temporary project disruptions, with project progress in Q3 2025 lagging behind that of Q3 2024 [2]. - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Xintong Quantum to enhance its quantum security offerings, applying research results in various products and achieving practical success in national network communication projects [3]. - The company is expanding its AI and security product offerings through a "standard products + platform + services" model, including new products based on large models and customized services [4]. - The company is expected to gradually recover in revenue throughout the year, with projected revenues of 30.14 billion CNY, 33.00 billion CNY, and 36.39 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 12.02 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 24.01%, and a net profit of -2.35 billion CNY, down 39.10% year-on-year [1]. - The projected financials indicate a return to profitability with net profits of 1.68 billion CNY, 2.40 billion CNY, and 2.98 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is expected to improve from -11.8% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2025, with a net profit margin projected to reach 5.6% by 2025 [13].