研究周报：农产品-20251109

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Agricultural Products dated November 9, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement of palm oil prices depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver. Soybean meal and soybeans are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the USDA report and paying attention to trade sentiment. Corn futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. Sugar should focus on policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Live pig contradictions are accumulating, waiting for spot market confirmation [2][5][8][17][21][29][54][84][103] Group 4: Summary by Product Palm Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: The market was worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week. It may stabilize in the short - term, with support at 8400 - 8600, and there may be a second dip by the end of the year [4] - This Week's View and Logic: Malaysia's production may be above last year's level in the fourth quarter, and the inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons by the end of the year. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. International palm oil prices are suppressed, and there is no strong upward driver on the origin side. It may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter [5] Soybean Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: With good production conditions in Brazil, soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to fluctuate weakly, but strong export demand and de - stocking made it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. Soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week [4] - This Week's View and Logic: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure by the end of the year. In China, soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver [8] Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Last Week's Situation: US soybean futures prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly oscillating due to trade concerns. International soybean market fundamentals included the suspension of the US export sales report, an increase in Brazilian soybean import costs, and a slowdown in Brazilian soybean planting progress [17] - Next Week's Outlook: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybeans will oscillate. Pay attention to trade sentiment and wait for the 11 - month USDA supply - demand report [21] Corn - Market Review: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, prices rose, driven by the increase in the northern port price and low inventory [29][30] - Market Outlook: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory increased, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. The short - term futures market is expected to be strong [31][32][33][34] Sugar - This Week's Market Review: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, WTI crude oil and New York raw sugar prices fell. Domestically, the spot price of Guangxi sugar increased, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased [54][55] - Next Week's Market Outlook: Internationally, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Domestically, it shows a weak reality, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [56] Cotton - Market Situation: ICE cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. New cotton costs are basically confirmed, and the market focus returns to supply - demand. There is no new upward driver currently, and it is expected to oscillate [84] Live Pigs - This Week's Market Review: In the spot market, pig prices weakly oscillated. In the futures market, prices oscillated and adjusted [103][104] - Next Week's Market Outlook: Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and futures prices may face inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The support level of the LH2601 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [105][106]