房地产行业周度观点更新：好房子是中长期阿尔法-20251109

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and is maintained [14] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has provided some uplift to market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of relaxed industrial policies is gradually rising, and the rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed. Core areas and quality properties exhibit structural highlights. The current stock positions of quality real estate stocks are not far from their bottom, and market valuation increases provide room for rebound. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management [3][8][12] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.71%, with an excess return of -1.53% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 12.15%, with an excess return of -6.75% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 21st out of 32 [9][19] Policy Updates - Hubei Province has optimized housing provident fund policies, while Pingjiang County in Hunan Province has implemented measures for selling existing homes. New policies include increasing loan limits, adjusting loan terms, broadening the application scenarios for housing provident funds, and removing restrictions on withdrawals for purchasing homes in other locations [10][21] Sales Data - This week, the year-on-year decline in new and second-hand home registrations in sample cities has widened. The new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 35.0% year-on-year over the past four weeks, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased by 22.5%. Year-to-date, the new home transaction area has decreased by 11.1%, while the second-hand home area has increased by 9.4% [11][22] Key Highlights - The current industry adjustment shows typical characteristics of the second half, with total indicators of rapid decline gradually passing. The internal structure is beginning to show clear differentiation, with quality properties and mid-to-high-end improvement products performing better than average. The pressure for depleting old inventory is manageable, and certain real estate companies with advantageous regional layouts and product strengths can achieve alpha without relying on the cycle [12][8]