Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][2]. Core Views - The company's profit adjustments due to negative factors such as retail pressure, rising expense ratios, and unclear subsidy expectations are gradually being digested. The current position shows defensive value, with expectations for profit elasticity from future retail improvements. The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 330 million, 370 million, and 410 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 3.48 billion, 240 million, and 180 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.6%, -43.2%, and -49.9%. In Q3 alone, revenues, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses were 1.09 billion, 40 million, and 20 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +3.1%, -45.7%, and -67.6% [5][2]. Expense Analysis - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, remaining stable overall. The expense ratio increased by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating rigidity. The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.8 percentage points, 2.5 percentage points, -0.3 percentage points, and -0.2 percentage points, respectively. The increase in sales expense ratio is primarily attributed to increased brand investment and rising costs related to personnel and rent [11][5].
报喜鸟(002154):2025Q3点评:刚性费用拖累利润,期待后续修复弹性