股指期货:重新走稳
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-10 01:04
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's market continued to fluctuate, with most major indices closing higher. Power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors led the losses [1]. - The upward trend of stock indices has not reversed. However, with the overall stock market valuation in the relatively expensive range, it is reasonable for the bull market driven by sentiment and liquidity to experience amplified fluctuations. It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue [2]. - In the short - term, the market lacks a direct catalyst for upward movement and may rely on short - term news fluctuations. Without relevant negative news, the generally positive sentiment may lead to a market rebound [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.82%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.44%. The NASDAQ fell 2.83%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 4.07% [11]. - Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. The ChiNext Index has risen 49.8%, and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index has risen 27.9% [13]. - Last week, most major domestic indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, and the CSI 300 Index rose 0.89% [15][17]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the energy sector rose 4.57%, and the pharmaceutical sector fell 2.93%. In the CSI 500 Index, the energy sector rose 5.71%, and the information sector rose 0.36% [18]. 3.2 Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IH contract had the largest increase, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude [17]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [19][21]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of November 7, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 300 Index was 14.28 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.95 times [25]. - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 33.38 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.75 times [27]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - focused funds showed certain trends, and the capital interest rate dropped last week. The central bank conducted a net cash withdrawal [30]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set with reference to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend - following strategy: Adopt the idea of buying on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF main contract IF2510 is between 4533 and 4766 points; the IH main contract IH2510 is between 2941 and 3077 points; the IC main contract IC2510 is between 7072 and 7546 points; the IM main contract IM2510 is between 7179 and 7663 points [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: It is expected that the strength - weakness conversion will still be rapid, and caution is advised for the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and short on IC (or IM) [5].