黑色专题：煤炭供需形势向好，焦煤价格易涨难跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V-shaped trend. Since July, due to policies and inspections, coal production has declined, while demand has been strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal have shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation. In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern is hard to reverse, and coal prices are likely to rise [2][17]. - The decline in coal production in Shanxi has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Although coking coal production is better than overall coal production, the supply is still tight [3][4][34]. - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. However, the import of coking coal from Mongolia has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, and the overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. - Steel mills' production has remained strong this year, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter, leading to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8]. - The total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized, and the thermal coal inventory has also shown a favorable trend, which supports coal prices [9]. - In the fourth quarter, coal prices are likely to remain firm. Coking coal, as a trading instrument, will continue to attract market attention. It is recommended to go long on coal at dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coal and short on ore [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Coal Price Trend Reversal, Supply - Demand Pattern Remodeled - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend. Policy changes led to a decline in coal production since July, while demand was strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [17]. 2. Stricter Coal Policies, Sharp Supply Contraction - Since the end of July, coal production has decreased month - on - month after inspections. Shanxi's production decline has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Overall, coal production has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of coking coal is tight [3][4][34]. 3. Imports Fill Part of the Gap, Russia and Mongolia Provide Large Increases - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. Mongolia's coking coal import has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, while Russia's import has increased significantly. The overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. 4. Continuous Consumption Growth, Structural Shortage - Steel mills' production has remained strong, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter. Power plant coal consumption is high in the off - season, chemical coal consumption is at a high level, and building material coal consumption remains stable, resulting in a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8][43][50]. 5. Inventory Continues to Improve, Boosting Coal Prices Upward - Since the third quarter, the total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized. The thermal coal inventory has not increased further and is lower than last year's level. The inventory situation supports coal prices [9][65]. 6. Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern of coal is hard to reverse. Coal prices are likely to remain firm. Although steel mills may cut production in the short term, the adjustment space for coking coal prices is limited. A strategy of going long on coal and short on ore can be considered [10][69].