工业硅、多晶硅日评：上方承压-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement in demand. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may exert some pressure on the upper limit of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated upwards. Considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, which may limit the upward space of the futures market and lead to a potential decline. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.71% to 9,220 yuan/ton. [1] - Production Situation: From October 31 to November 6, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises in Sichuan was 4,750 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 41%. The operating rate of sample silicon enterprises in Yunnan was 33%, showing a significant decline from the previous week. In October, some silicon enterprises in the southwest region stopped production due to the high - cost dry season. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. [1] - Demand Situation: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced production or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited. [1] - Investment Strategy: The silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon market remains oversupplied. It is recommended to focus on the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range operation. [1] Polysilicon - Price Information: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re -投料 remained flat at 52.2 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,215 yuan/ton. [1] - Supply Situation: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November may decline. [1] - Demand Situation: The trading in the polysilicon market was relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance. [1] - Investment Strategy: Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated upwards. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market. It is recommended that previous long positions pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1]