金信期货日刊-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures is difficult to change the long - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the price may maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, it is likely to return to a weak consolidation state if there is no new export quota policy. For other varieties, different trading strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand and technical conditions [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 7, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1,668 yuan/ton, up 1.65%, with market sentiment slightly warming. The rise is mainly boosted by the spot end, strengthening the short - term bullish expectation [3]. - Currently, the agricultural demand for urea is in the final stage, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises shows a phenomenon of following up on purchases at low prices. However, in 2025, urea is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added throughout the year, and the supply is expected to be loose [3]. - In the short term, the futures price may maintain a narrow - range shock, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy. If new quotas are implemented, it may bring phased opportunities; otherwise, the price is likely to return to a weak state [4]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating within 20 points and finally closing with a high - level doji. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level next week [7][8]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and investors can buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. The demand side is weak except for exports, and the real estate and infrastructure are still bottom - seeking. Technically, it broke down today, and the trading strategy is to short on rebounds [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for the supply side. Technically, investors can pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes at a low level [19][20]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the contradiction of seasonal supply shortage will gradually emerge. Investors can take long positions [23]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises has boosted the pulp price, and the futures have increased in positions and prices. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the supply is still loose, and the purchasing end is cautious. It is expected that the pulp will continue to operate weakly, and it is recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [26].