中泰期货晨会纪要-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall investment strategy involves a combination of bullish, bearish, and neutral outlooks across different sectors and commodities, with specific trading suggestions based on fundamental and technical analyses [2][4]. - For macro - financial products, A - share index futures are expected to oscillate and rise, and treasury bond futures still have upward momentum [11][13]. - In the black commodities sector, a mid - term bearish approach is recommended for steel and related products, while double - coking products may continue to oscillate in the short term [15][17]. - In the agricultural products sector, different commodities have varying trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillation, sugar with a bearish supply - demand outlook, and eggs with a complex supply - demand and price relationship [28][30][32]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is expected to be weak, and other products like fuel oil, plastics, etc., follow their own supply - demand and market - driven trends [39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Technical Analyses - Fundamental Analysis: Commodities are classified into trend - bearish (e.g., iron ore), oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish (e.g., lithium carbonate) based on fundamental factors [2]. - Technical Analysis: Commodities are divided into bearish (e.g., corn starch), oscillating (e.g., Shanghai aluminum), and bullish (e.g., palm oil) based on quantitative indicators [4]. 2. Macro News - China has adjusted export control measures and trade policies, with trade data showing continuous growth in imports and a short - term decline in exports in October. CPI and PPI have positive changes, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves have increased [6][7]. - The US government shutdown has affected economic data release and economic growth, and the Federal Reserve's future policy actions are under consideration [8]. 3. Macro - Financial Products - Stock Index Futures: Adopt an oscillating - rising strategy, paying attention to the style switch between IH and IC. A - shares oscillated lower, affected by trade data and price index changes [11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Monetary policy implementation is in the process, and bonds still have upward momentum. The weakening of export data may lead to more relaxed monetary policies [13]. 4. Black Commodities - Steel and Ore: In the medium - term winter, a bearish approach is recommended. Market factors include policy, demand, supply, and valuation. The market may first rebound and then decline, and winter storage willingness may be affected [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as coal mine production inspections and downstream iron - water production [17]. - Ferroalloys: The upper and lower limits of the double - silicon disk are strengthened, and a long - term bearish approach is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [18]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for glass, try to go long at low prices. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics and uncertainties [20]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories have decreased, and the market is affected by domestic and international factors [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillate in the short term, supported by strong fundamentals and inventory reduction, but limited by seasonal demand decline [23]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Both oscillate within a range, with industrial silicon having a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and polysilicon being affected by policy expectations [24]. 6. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Oscillate at a low level, affected by supply pressure and weak demand, but supported by price resistance at low levels [28]. - Sugar: Adopt a bearish or wait - and - see approach. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic sugar is affected by supply and cost factors [30]. - Eggs: Futures are strong in the short term, but the upside of spot prices is limited. Pay attention to the verification of futures expectations by spot prices [32]. - Apples: Oscillate strongly. The acquisition season has its own characteristics, and attention should be paid to price trends and inventory consumption [34]. - Corn: Pay attention to the upper pressure. The market is affected by supply pressure and policy - related factors [35]. - Jujubes: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot market in sales areas is weak, affecting the new jujube order price [36]. - Pigs: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. Adopt a bearish approach for near - month contracts [37]. 7. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Oscillate weakly. Supply exceeds demand, and the price is likely to fall [39]. - Fuel Oil: Prices follow crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure [40]. - Plastics: Oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, but production losses may provide some support [41]. - Rubber: Stop falling in the short term due to weather, but face upward pressure [42]. - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillate weakly, affected by raw materials and inventory [43]. - Methanol: Near - month contracts oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be slightly bullish after a rebound [44]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillate strongly, affected by spot prices, electricity prices, and other factors [46]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games [47]. - Polyester Industry Chain: May continue to be strong in the short term, affected by sentiment and news, and pay attention to unexpected device changes [48]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Oscillate strongly in the short term due to peak demand, but bearish in the long term due to abundant supply [49]. - Pulp: The upside is limited. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions, and consider short positions at high levels [50]. - Logs: Oscillate weakly, with supply pressure and a weakening spot market [51]. - Urea: Operate according to policies, with a wide - range oscillation strategy [52].