研究所晨会观点精萃：美国政府停摆有结束的希望，提振全球风险偏好-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The hope of the end of the US government shutdown has led to a rebound in the US dollar index after a decline, and global risk appetite has increased. However, the US consumer confidence is close to a record low, and the US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for eight consecutive months. Domestically: China's manufacturing boom declined in October, exports decreased unexpectedly, and economic growth slowed down. But inflation data rebounded unexpectedly, and the supply side strengthened. Policy stimulus expectations have increased, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and future attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and policy implementation [3]. - The short - term market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth. In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. For the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously on the sidelines; precious metals are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously on the sidelines [3]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas: The University of Michigan consumer confidence in the US in November was 50.3, hitting a low since June 2022. The hope of the end of the US government shutdown led to a rebound in the US dollar index after a decline, and global risk appetite increased [3]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI declined in October, exports decreased unexpectedly, and economic growth slowed down. But inflation data in October rebounded unexpectedly, and policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and future attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and policy implementation [3]. - Asset Performance: The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. For the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously on the sidelines; precious metals are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously on the sidelines [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as artificial intelligence, digital currency, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the increase in safe - haven demand, the short - term precious metals are expected to oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to be on the sidelines in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel market continued to follow the fundamental logic, with prices remaining weak. Demand peaked this week, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 49.51 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 18.55 tons week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [5][6]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore rebounded slightly. Demand continued to weaken, and supply pressure remained high. The global iron ore arrivals increased by 1229.8 tons week - on - week to 3314.1 tons, and port inventories increased by 350 tons week - on - week. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices continued to decline slightly. Demand decreased, and the production of five major steel products decreased week - on - week. The futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract oscillated strongly last week. Supply increased, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - Glass: The main contract oscillated within a range last week. Supply remained stable, demand was weak year - on - year, and inventory was high. Supported by policies and with low valuation, it is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US copper inventory is at a historical high, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The second - largest copper mine in Indonesia has shut down, which supports the futures price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly. The European aluminum premium rebounded. The domestic de - stocking is not smooth, and both domestic supply and imports are high. If the price rises above 21,800, it is advisable to try shorting [9]. - Tin: The supply shortage persists, and demand is weak. The social inventory of tin ingots increased this week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is de - stocking rapidly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The production decreased significantly in the southwest after the end of the wet season. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The downstream demand is weak, and the policy expectation is strong. It is expected to oscillate within a high - level range, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Both inland and port inventories increased. The fundamentals are under pressure, but coal prices provide some support. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, with a slowdown in the decline rate and limited space [13]. - PP: Demand has improved, but supply growth is too fast, and the traditional off - season is approaching. It is expected to continue to decline [13]. - LLDPE: The supply pressure continues to accumulate, and demand is expected to weaken. The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to remain under pressure [13]. - Urea: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is divided. It is expected to continue to consolidate weakly in the short term [14]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The market is optimistic about the restoration of Sino - US soybean trade relations. The USDA will release a report on November 15. If the US soybean yield per unit is lowered, the ending inventory will shrink, which will strengthen the cost - repair logic [15]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The import of soybeans in China from January to October reached a record high. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. The risk - buying of rapeseed meal supports the narrowing of the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal mainly fluctuates with soybean meal [16]. - Corn: The situation of oversupply remains unchanged. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the profit of deep - processing is increasing. Wheat prices provide some support [16]. - Pig: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure decreased. Demand increased seasonally. The pork price is expected to be weakly stable, and the futures price may have strong support under the discount [17].