贵金属日报：贵金属-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].