Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, the technology sector remains the market's main line. With policy support for the capital market unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] - For treasury bonds, the fourth - quarter bond market is affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. It is expected to oscillate and recover overall [6][7] - For precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and silver prices. Recommend going long on silver on dips [9] - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are supported by supply tightness; aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations; zinc prices are short - term strong but have limited upside in the surplus cycle [12][14][17] - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, and the iron ore market is weak in the short term. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate steadily [35][37][39] - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may rebound, and oil prices are recommended to be traded in a range [56][58] - For agricultural products, the hog market is bearish in the long - term, and egg prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [80][82] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: In the past two months, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen nearly 120% from its low, and the price of NAND flash memory contracts has increased by 50% in November. The government has introduced policies to boost consumption [2] - Strategy: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Friday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. In October, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 1417 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan [5] - Strategy: The central bank's resumption of trading in treasury bonds is beneficial to the bond market sentiment in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [6][7] Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose slightly. The Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the expectation of interest rate cuts, but Powell's statement on the balance sheet provides a reason for its expansion [8] - Strategy: Recommend going long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 880 - 966 yuan/gram and 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram respectively [9] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: On Friday, the copper price rose slightly and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [11] - Strategy: The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are 85400 - 86600 yuan/ton and 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton respectively [12] Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased [13] - Strategy: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are 21400 - 21700 yuan/ton and 2830 - 2890 dollars/ton respectively [14] Zinc - Market Information: The zinc price rose slightly. Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [15][16] - Strategy: The reduction in zinc smelting开工率 and partial zinc exports have tightened the spot market, but the upside of zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [17] Lead - Market Information: The lead price fell slightly. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [18] - Strategy: The tight supply at the near end has pushed the lead price to run strongly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will oscillate strongly in the short term [18] Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the price of nickel iron is weak [19] - Strategy: Short - term observation is recommended. If the nickel price drops enough, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton respectively [20][21] Tin - Market Information: The tin price rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support [22] - Strategy: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are 270000 - 295000 yuan/ton and 35500 - 37500 dollars/ton respectively [23] Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium rose. The demand for power and energy - storage batteries is high, and the supply of mines is expected to be delayed [24] - Strategy: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in a range in the short term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 80500 - 84500 yuan/ton [25] Alumina - Market Information: The alumina price fell slightly. Overseas ore prices are expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term [26] - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [28] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The supply - demand imbalance in the market is still difficult to resolve, and the cost support is weakening [29] - Strategy: It is expected that the stainless steel market will continue to be weak in the short term [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost support is strong, but the demand is average [31] - Strategy: The short - term price may oscillate in a range [32] Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. Rebar inventory continued to decline, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [34] - Strategy: Steel demand has entered the off - season. The inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. Future demand may recover with policy implementation [35] Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore price fell. Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventory increased [36] - Strategy: The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. The short - term ore price is still weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [37] Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass price rose slightly, and the soda ash price rose. The inventory of glass decreased, and the inventory of soda ash increased [38][39] - Strategy: The glass market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and the soda ash market is expected to oscillate steadily [39][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased slightly. The market is affected by macro events, and the pricing has returned to fundamentals [41][43] - Strategy: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and it may follow the black - sector market. The operability of ferrosilicon is low [44] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon fell. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to be under pressure, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [45][48] - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon is expected to consolidate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company for polysilicon [47][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated. The market risk preference may improve, and there are differences between long and short views [51][52] - Strategy: It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips. A partial position can be established for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [56] Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude oil price rose slightly, and the prices of refined oil products fell. The gasoline inventory decreased, and the diesel inventory increased [57] - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short term and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention [58] Methanol - Market Information: The methanol price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened [59] - Strategy: It is recommended to observe. The current weak - reality pattern has not changed [60][61] Urea - Market Information: The urea price rose. The supply and demand are in a relatively loose pattern, and the fundamentals lack a driving force [62] - Strategy: It is recommended to observe. The price is at a low level, and the downside space is limited [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene decreased, and the price of styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, and the demand for styrene is seasonal [63] - Strategy: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [64] PVC - Market Information: The PVC price decreased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor [65] - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse [66] Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG price rose. The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost support is weak [67] - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies. The inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter [68] PTA - Market Information: The PTA price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The processing fee is under pressure [69] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [70][71] p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX price decreased. The load of PX is high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly. The support comes from aromatics blending and the long - term supply - demand structure [72] - Strategy: It is expected to follow the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [73] Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE price decreased. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [74] - Strategy: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [75] Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [76] - Strategy: The PP price is expected to be supported in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes [77] Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: The hog price was stable with partial increases. The supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival [79] - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the long term and conduct reverse spreads in the short term [80] Eggs - Market Information: The egg price fluctuated slightly. The supply is still large, but the demand is supported [81] - Strategy: The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Observe or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the demand is expected to improve [83] - Strategy: The short - term price may rise, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [84] Oils and Fats - Market Information: The palm oil export increased, and the production increased. The domestic oil price oscillated weakly [85] - Strategy: The palm oil market is expected to be weak in the short term. Turn to a bullish view if the production decreases [86] Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar export increased, and the global supply is expected to increase [87][88] - Strategy: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [89] Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated. The demand is weak, and the new - cotton supply is large [90] - Strategy: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [91]
文字早评2025/11/10：宏观金融类-20251110
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-10 01:39