渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.10）-20251110

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record duration, with both parties claiming some advantage in the ongoing negotiations [3] - In October, the U.S. ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations, but there are risks of layoffs from large companies and the federal government [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, indicating weak demand and supply, while the services PMI reached an eight-month high, potentially boosting Q4 economic activity [3][4] - In China, the manufacturing PMI fell below seasonal expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery due to holiday and e-commerce promotions [4] - Trade data for October showed a decline in export growth, with only specific sectors like automobiles and integrated circuits contributing positively [4] Fixed Income Research - In October, the central bank's liquidity management led to a slight net withdrawal, with overall funding costs remaining low [6][7] - The issuance of government bonds decreased by nearly 700 billion yuan, with the issuance of special local government bonds remaining steady [7] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 1.80% by the end of October [7][9] - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with potential influences from economic pressures and policy measures expected to stabilize the market [8][9] Industry Research: Computer Industry - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming to integrate AI into various sectors [10] - In September 2025, the producer price index (PPI) for the computer industry remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [12] - The software industry reported a business revenue of 1,111.26 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [12] - The stock performance of the computer industry saw a decline of 2.28% from October 1 to October 31, with varying performances across sub-sectors [12] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with AI technology application capabilities as the industry continues to show upward potential [12] Industry Research: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The negotiation for the drug catalog has concluded successfully, with expectations for the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog to be published soon [14][15] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the pharmaceutical biotechnology sector rose by 0.32% [15][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring pharmaceutical companies as the results of the centralized procurement and national medical insurance negotiations are expected to be released [16] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector remains high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.97 times as of November 6, 2025 [16]