宁证期货今日早评-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - 焦煤: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - 螺纹钢: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - 铁矿石: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - 白银: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. Agricultural Products - 生猪: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - 棕榈油: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - 菜粕: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Energy and Chemicals - 沥青: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - 橡胶: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - 甲醇: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - 纯碱: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Others - 长期国债: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - 塑料: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].