全国与省份医保基金、商业健康险月度跟踪专题-20251110

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - From January to September 2025, the national medical insurance fund accumulated revenue of 21,086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while expenditures totaled 17,280 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% [2][5]. - The commercial health insurance sector reported a cumulative premium income of 8,427 billion yuan during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [32]. Summary by Sections National Medical Insurance Fund Tracking - Cumulative revenue for the national medical insurance fund from January to September 2025 was 21,086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%. Monthly revenue in September was 2,276 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [2][5]. - Cumulative expenditures for the same period were 17,280 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with September expenditures at 1,847 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year [5]. Provincial Medical Insurance Fund Tracking - In Hunan Province, the employee medical insurance fund accumulated revenue of 340.04 billion yuan (up 4% year-on-year) and expenditures of 221.49 billion yuan (down 6% year-on-year) from January to September 2025 [15][18]. - Guizhou Province reported a cumulative revenue of 573.99 billion yuan (up 12% year-on-year) and expenditures of 474.71 billion yuan (down 1% year-on-year) during the same period [23][26]. - Guangdong Province's employee medical insurance fund had a cumulative revenue of 1,368.41 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year) and expenditures of 1,072.85 billion yuan (up 4% year-on-year) [27][30]. Commercial Health Insurance Tracking - The national commercial health insurance sector's cumulative premium income reached 8,427 billion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2% [32].