地方债周度跟踪：7Y以上地方债减国债利差收窄，下周发行明显提速-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a week-on-week basis next period. The current weighted issuance term of local government bonds has lengthened compared to the previous period [2]. - The current issuance progress of new local government bonds is relatively slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan, including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (November 3 - November 9, 2025) was 91.607 billion yuan (compared to 270.682 billion yuan in the previous period), and the net financing was -33.641 billion yuan. The expected issuance and net financing next period (November 10 - November 16, 2025) are 285.067 billion yuan and 242.792 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, which was longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 it was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][13][16]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 71.33 billion yuan for local government bonds from November to December 2025 (70.16 billion yuan in November and 1.17 billion yuan in December), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan in November and 0.36 billion yuan in December) [2][24]. - This period, 1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 5.07 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025. They are at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a week-on-week basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][37]. - Taking the 10Y local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].