宏观和大类资产配置周报：关注资本市场的估值切换行情-20251110

Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights a focus on the valuation switching trend in capital markets, with the recommended asset allocation order being equities > commodities > bonds > currency [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 0.48% [1][11] - The report notes a decline in futures for coking coal by 1.31% and iron ore by 3.95% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, with active ten-year government bond futures dropping by 0.17% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [3][12] - A cautious approach is recommended for bonds, as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may impact the bond market in the short term [3][12] - The report maintains a neutral stance on commodities, emphasizing the importance of fiscal policy implementation [3][12] - Currency allocation is also suggested to be neutral, with expectations of yields fluctuating around 2% [3][12] Economic Data Insights - In October, China's total goods trade value reached 3.7 trillion yuan, marking a 0.1% increase, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports rising by 1.4% [18] - The report indicates that the U.S. remains China's third-largest trading partner, with a 15.9% year-on-year decline in trade value [18] - The report notes a significant increase in soybean imports, reaching 9.482 million tons, the highest for the same period historically [18] Industry-Specific Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and its impact on market expectations [4] - It highlights the potential for a relatively stable period in Sino-U.S. trade relations following recent agreements [4][19] - The report discusses the ongoing focus on service consumption, government subsidies to boost consumption, and technology as key areas of interest during the valuation transition [4] Market Performance Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market saw a predominance of gains, with the Shanghai Dividend Index leading with a 2.85% increase [37] - The report notes that the electric power equipment and steel sectors performed well, while the pharmaceutical and computer sectors faced declines [37]