宝城期货资讯早班车-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects, and the CPI and PPI both showed positive changes. The year - to - date foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased. The bond market was generally weak and volatile, and the stock market had certain resilience [2][11]. - The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, and the convertible bond valuation will remain high and stable [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. The CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [1]. - From January to October 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [2]. - A potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned with a fund scale of about 70 billion yuan [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - As of November 7, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.17% from the previous trading day. The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [4][5]. - On November 7, the domestic gold inventory reached a new high since January 2008, and the silver inventory reached a new low in nearly 10 years. Indian gold ETFs are experiencing record capital inflows [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Linfen implemented differential peak - shifting production control for long - process steel enterprises, and German steel manufacturers are in a survival crisis [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq set the official price of Basra medium - quality crude oil for North and South America in December at a discount of $1.35 per barrel to the ASCI [7]. - The cumulative shale oil production of Changqing Oilfield exceeded 20 million tons. Greece signed a long - term LNG supply contract with the US, and Japan plans to purchase LNG as emergency reserves starting from January 2026 [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of November 7, more than 70% of the wheat in Shanxi Province had been sown, and it is expected to complete the sowing task [9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. On November 7, the central bank conducted 141.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 21.34 billion yuan on that day [10]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - From January to October 2025, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.343343 trillion, and the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, with continuous increases [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs suspended the implementation of multiple export control measures, and restored the soybean import qualifications of three US enterprises and the import of US logs [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally weak and volatile, with most interest - rate bond yields rising. Treasury bond futures declined, and the yields of bank "perpetual and secondary" bonds generally increased [21]. - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose sharply, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index increased by 0.66%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.08% [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 9, down 6 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.16% in late New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the export growth rate in October was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. The import growth rate was also lower than expected, which may be related to the decline in manufacturing prosperity [27]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market's calendar effect has become more prominent since 2019. The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - Last week, the institutional research enthusiasm remained high, with 418 listed companies disclosing institutional research records. A - share market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, and institutions suggest paying attention to certain sectors [32]. - Brokerage firms' November strategies indicate that short - term factors have led to style fluctuations in the market, but corporate profits are in the recovery stage, and the medium - term outlook is still positive [33].