策略周报：配置AI资源短缺环节-20251110

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Chinese assets exhibit relative advantages amidst global market adjustments, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks expected to benefit from the ongoing global asset rebalancing process under a weak dollar environment [2][10] - A-shares are projected to maintain an upward trend supported by valuation, although short-term market movements may focus on consolidation in preparation for year-end performance [10] - The report highlights continuous improvement in A-share earnings, with cumulative net profit growth for all A-shares/non-financial/non-oil and petrochemical sectors in Q3 2025 at 5.6%/2.0%/4.0%, respectively, showing significant increases from mid-year figures [22][23] Market Overview - Global risk assets have experienced widespread adjustments, with the U.S. government shutdown impacting consumer confidence and financial market operations, leading to a decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to its lowest since June 2022 [10] - Despite these challenges, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown resilience, supported by inflows of domestic and foreign capital [10] Earnings Improvement - The technology sector has contributed significantly to profit growth, with the TMT industry accounting for a 3.0% contribution to overall earnings, while upstream resource sectors like oil and coal have seen declines of -1.5% and -1.6%, respectively [22][23] - The report anticipates further earnings recovery in Q4 2025, with cumulative profit growth for all A non-financial sectors expected to range between 2.4% and 5.5% [23] AI Industry Insights - The report identifies a critical opportunity in the AI industry chain, particularly in addressing shortages in power and storage, as global demand for AI-related infrastructure continues to rise [2][22] - The price increase of storage chips and the challenges faced by leading firms like Microsoft and OpenAI due to power shortages highlight the high demand within the AI supply chain [2][22] Policy and Market Trends - Recent government initiatives aim to accelerate the application of new technologies and products, which are expected to facilitate the commercialization of AI and other emerging technologies [2] - The report suggests focusing on downstream applications in sectors such as artificial intelligence and vehicle networking as key investment opportunities [2]