风险偏好回落，铜价延续调整

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices continued to adjust. The main reasons were that more Fed officials were cautious about year - end interest rate cuts, the US employment market was fragile, inflation was rising, and the US dollar index rebounded, all of which restricted copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mines resumed production slowly, domestic refined copper production declined for the second consecutive month, social inventories increased slightly, and the near - month contract returned to a C structure [1][6]. - Overall, with the decline of year - end interest rate cut expectations and the US government's record - breaking shutdown, market risk appetite continued to fall, and the US dollar index rebound suppressed the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mines resumed production slowly, domestic refined copper production decreased monthly, but social inventories continued to rise recently, and high copper prices inhibited traditional industry consumption. It is expected that copper prices will continue to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [1][8]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of LME copper, COMEX copper, SHFE copper, and international copper all declined from October 31st to November 7th. The LME copper price dropped by 1.80% to $10,695.00 per ton, COMEX copper by 3.05% to 495.8 cents per pound, SHFE copper by 1.23% to 85,940.00 yuan per ton, and international copper by 1.24% to 76,500.00 yuan per ton. The LME spot premium decreased by 26.18% to - $18.22 per ton, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 40 yuan per ton [2]. - In terms of inventory, from October 31st to November 7th, LME inventory increased by 0.95% to 135,900 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 3.85% to 369,369 short tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 0.95% to 115,017 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 6.09% to 100,200 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.03% to 720,486 tons [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: The US ADP private sector employment in October exceeded expectations, but the overall employment growth slowed down compared to the beginning of the year. US large - scale enterprises announced lay - off plans, and the unemployment rate may rise again by the end of the year. The US government shutdown has lasted for 35 days, and the Fed officials have different views on December interest rate cuts. In China, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in September increased significantly year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing played a leading role [6][7]. - Supply - demand aspect: Mines in Indonesia and Panama had problems, and the production of domestic refined copper in October dropped to 109 tons. In terms of demand, traditional industries were suppressed by high copper prices, while emerging markets such as new energy vehicles and data centers had broad prospects. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, and the spot tight - balance situation was slightly relieved [8]. Industry News - Chile's Codelco expects its copper production in 2025 and 2026 to be slightly higher than last year. In the first nine months of 2025, its pre - tax profit was $606.9 million, and its copper production reached 937,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The increase was mainly due to the output growth of Ministro Hales and the contribution of the RajoInca project in the Salvador mine [9]. - Canada's Lundin Mining raised its annual copper production guidance by about 4% to 319,000 - 337,000 tons. The performance of the Caserones mine in Chile exceeded expectations, and the company also lowered its cost expectations [10]. - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile is showing signs of recovery. Thanks to the action plan launched in August, the mill throughput and copper recovery rate have gradually reached the expected level. The company expects the mine to enter a stable operation state in late 2026 [11]. Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes, spot premium trends, price differences between refined and scrap copper, and other data, which can help investors understand the copper market comprehensively [13][15][17].