Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For protein meal, it is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improved crushing margins, but in the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, so it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. - For palm oil, if the high production in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory - building situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as having a weak - oscillating trend, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [6]. - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [10]. - For cotton, the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the cotton price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - For eggs, in the short - term, they are expected to be in a strong - consolidation state, and in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to short [17]. - For pigs, in the long - term, the strategy is to short on rebounds, currently, the reverse spread is the first - choice strategy, followed by shorting after rebounds [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums fell last week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.26 days to 7.75 days. MYSTEEL expects this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in major Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level, and soybean planting may proceed normally. China's announcement of resuming the soybean export qualifications of several institutions such as CHS and the import qualification of US logs on Friday led to optimistic expectations for US soybean demand, causing the CBOT soybean market to rebound [3]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of import cost, although there are signals of China importing US soybeans, the rise in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly oscillate. Domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improved crushing margins, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.55% in October and 6.8% in the first 5 days of November. The US Department of Agriculture will release monthly supply - demand forecasts on November 14, and MPOB will release the palm oil monthly report at 12:30 on November 10. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly, and the overall commodity market corrected. Palm oil prices are still constrained by the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently, and no signal of production decline has been seen. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpectedly high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market performance. The current situation of inventory - building due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to regard it as having a weak - oscillating trend before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [6]. Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,457 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,690 - 5,730 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,530 - 5,580 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,790 - 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 233 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. As of October in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar exports were 21.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.27%. Brazil's Conab estimated that the sugarcane output in the central - southern region in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 607.38 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons. Sugar production is expected to be 41.34 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 40.64 million tons. India's ISMA estimated that the total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 34.35 million tons; after deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to be 30.95 million tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoints - Recently, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is still very weak. Since August this year, due to a significant year - on - year increase in the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. Currently, it is expected that the main northern hemisphere producing countries will increase production in the 2025/26 new sugar - crushing season, and the upward space for raw sugar is limited. As a result, the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,279 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, 6.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 8.64 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 74.04%. On November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. In the new year, there is a large domestic harvest, and the pressure of selling for hedging is high. Recently, the new cotton purchase price has risen slightly, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [13]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable, with overall small fluctuations. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the small - sized eggs in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. With a decrease in newly - laid hens and continuous hen culling, the in - production hen inventory is gradually reaching its peak and declining. However, the overall supply scale is still large, which may limit the price increase space. On the demand side, since November, it has been frequently stimulated by factors such as stockpiling and restocking, and there is strong support at the bottom. Overall, egg prices will mainly oscillate strongly until the end of the inventory - building season [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of the inventory reaching its peak and declining due to continuous low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing stockpiling sentiment after the temperature drop, has broken the previous downward spiral of egg prices. With the continuation of consumption themes such as the Double Eleven and pre - holiday restocking, the improved sentiment is expected to drive the market to build inventory. The futures market has reacted in advance to the price increase expectation, but with the futures price at a premium to the spot price, long - position traders are generally cautious, and the expectation of high - supply suppression still exists. It is expected to be in a strong - consolidation state in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to short [17]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with local small increases. The average price in Henan rose 0.17 yuan to 12.2 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan rose 0.04 yuan to 11.51 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in the first ten days was good, and farmers had a mentality of holding up prices. However, after the pig price rose, slaughterhouses were resistant, which may cause a short - term reduction in volume. It is expected that today's pig prices will be mainly stable, with local small increases or decreases [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - This round of rebound is mainly driven by frozen product warehousing and increased second - fattening. The subsequent supply generated will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, jointly establish a bearish pattern of high - volume slaughter and large - sized pigs before the Spring Festival. Against the background of oversupply, the long - term direction of the futures market still points to shorting on rebounds. Currently, a game pattern of low prices and high positions has been formed. With limited short - term negative factors, the futures market may rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, the current strategy first recommends a reverse spread, followed by shorting after rebounds [20].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251110
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-10 02:28