第四轮提涨开启，双焦期货震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream steel mills' loss area has expanded, with increased maintenance and a decline in hot metal production. The coke production of steel mills has slightly decreased, inventory has declined, and available days have decreased. The upstream coking coal supply is tight due to safety inspections, and prices continue to rise with high auction enthusiasm. Although the profits of downstream steel mills have narrowed and hot metal production has declined, the demand is resilient, and with the expectation of winter storage replenishment, the pressure is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are tight, and the main driver is the contraction of the supply side. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3034 | -72 | -2.32 | 5791624 | 2824366 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3245 | -63 | -1.90 | 2193217 | 1365348 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 760.5 | -39.5 | -4.94 | 1655900 | 537495 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1270.0 | -16.0 | -1.24 | 5683778 | 984216 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1756.5 | -20.5 | -1.15 | 108828 | 49120 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly. Fundamentally, the steel mills' production declined, and hot metal production continued to decrease, causing the futures prices to fluctuate at high levels. The loss area of downstream steel mills expanded, with increased maintenance and a decline in hot metal production. The coke production of steel mills slightly decreased, inventory declined, and available days decreased. The profitability of steel mills last week was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points compared to the previous week and 19.91 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The average daily hot metal production was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 0.16 tons compared to the same period last year. For the 247 steel mill samples nationwide, the average daily coke production was 46.09 (a decrease of 0.12), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.99% (a decrease of 0.22%). The mid - stream coking enterprises continued to suffer losses, although the losses in the previous period narrowed, but the production willingness was average, and coke production decreased. The national average coke profit per ton was - 22 yuan/ton, and the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 20 yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.31% (a decrease of 1.13%); the average daily coke production was 63.59 (a decrease of 1). In the upstream coal mines, due to the strong operation of coking coal prices and relatively stable supply - side production, coking coal auctions mainly increased. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 83.8%, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the previous period. The average daily raw coal production was 186.3 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons compared to the previous period, the raw coal inventory was 419.2 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons compared to the previous period, the average daily clean coal production was 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2.0 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory was 165.6 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons compared to the previous period. In terms of inventory, the coal - coke inventory was generally at a low level. The coke inventory of steel mills was 626.64 tons, a decrease of 2.41; the available days of coke were 11.07 days, a decrease of 0.50 days; the coking coal inventory was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.02, and the available days of coking coal were 12.84 days, a decrease of 0.12 days. The coke inventory of coking enterprises was 58.30 tons, a decrease of 1.57, the total coking coal inventory was 1070.02 tons, an increase of 0.54, and the available days of coking coal were 12.7 days, an increase of 0.4 days [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - Many places in Hebei lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather. With the continuous improvement of meteorological conditions, the pollutant diffusion capacity has significantly increased. Many places such as Tangshan, Handan, Shijiazhuang, Hengshui, Baoding, and Cangzhou successively issued announcements to lift the emergency response to heavy pollution weather on November 9. - Lan Fuan pointed out that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the package debt resolution plan will be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debt will be carried out well. A unified long - term supervision system for local government debt will be established, and strict accountability will be imposed on behaviors such as illegal debt issuance and false debt resolution to prevent new debts after clearance. The reform and transformation of local financing platforms will be accelerated, and the establishment or alienation of various financing platforms is strictly prohibited. The debt structure will be optimized, and a long - term government debt management mechanism compatible with high - quality development will be quickly established. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed as early as this week. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that China is willing to work with the US to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, and continuously reduce the problem list and expand the cooperation list through dialogue and negotiation based on the principles of equality, respect, and mutual benefit, so as to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China - US relations and inject more certainty and stability into the world. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced on November 6 that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in October was the same as the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for 8 consecutive months, reflecting the continued slow recovery of the global economy [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The content mainly shows various charts related to coking coal and coke, including the basis trend of coke, the futures and monthly spread trend of hot - rolled coils, the average daily production of independent coking plants, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, the average daily hot metal production, the inventory of coke in coking plants, steel mills, and ports, the available days of coke in steel mills, the total inventory of coke, the profit per ton of coke in different regions, the capacity utilization rate and production of coking coal mines, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors [8][12][14]